Update on the Presidential Race

     The November presidential election is only six months away and looms large over current politics. Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is facing four criminal cases against him, three of which have not yet gone to trial, and the fourth of which currently is underway in Manhattan. Despite this, Trump and Biden are mostly tied in current election polling, often with Trump edging slightly ahead. Many voters are unhappy with Biden, the Democratic nominee and current president, citing his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the economy, or his age. It seems that many of his achievements in office have gone widely unnoticed (read this Politico article for a short list). Many people also say that they don’t approve of either of the main candidates and that a second presidency for either would be bad. Due to dislike of both candidates, about 11% of people say they will vote for 3rd-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The people leaning toward voting for RFK Jr. contribute to Biden and Trump’s close polling. 

     Overall, the presidential race is close, and an echo of the 2020 election in terms of overall numbers. However, numbers among specific sub-groups of voters have shifted significantly, most notably among young voters, who now express significantly more discontent with Biden than they did prior to the 2020 election. The margins between Trump and Biden are close enough that the race could easily go either way, a prospect that is tiring for many who closely followed the 2020 election.

Works Cited

“30 Things Joe Biden Did as President You Might Have Missed - Politico.” Politico, 2 Jan. 2024, www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/02/joe-biden-30-policy-things-you-might-have-missed-00139046.

Montanaro, Domenico. “NPR Poll: Democrats Fear Fascism, and Republicans Worry about a Lack of Values.” NPR, NPR, 1 May 2024, www.npr.org/2024/05/01/1248249250/election-poll-trump-biden-voters.

“National 2024 Presidential Election Polls - 270towin.” 270toWin.Com, www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national. Accessed 5 May 2024.

Stein, Perry, and Devlin Barrett. “Trump Trials Update: The Latest in New York, Florida and His Other Cases - the Washington Post.” The Washington Post, 5 May 2024, www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/05/05/trump-trials-tracker-latest-news-hope-hicks/.