It’s 6:00 in the morning when the phone rings. An automated voice tells you, “Littleton public schools will be closed today due to the weather.” When you wake up again three hours later, the world outside is blanketed in white fluffy snow. You spend your snow day as every little kid should; building snowmen, sledding, baking cookies, and drinking hot chocolate. You go back to school the next morning dreaming of another big snowstorm to send you home and cover your lawn in another two feet of fluffy white freedom.
In snowy Massachusetts, snow days like these are a staple of every kid’s childhood. Even now, as teenagers, we spend the days before a storm anxiously checking the snow day calculator to see whether or not we’ll have school. But with climate change warming our oceans and COVID-era technology providing easy, at-home school alternatives, we must raise the question: Are snow days a dying experience?
Arguably the most important component of a snow day is, well, the snow, which is incredibly threatened by rising temperatures due to climate change. Greenhouse gasses, melting ice caps, and all that fun stuff that everyone has probably learned enough about already to give a TED Talk on is causing ocean temperatures to rise, which is especially important to us in Massachusetts, being so close to the Atlantic Coast. Higher sea surface temperatures means higher temperatures on the coast as well, and less snow.
A quick glance at a graph of snowfall averages in the past decades might at first indicate no change in snowfall at all. I mean, we broke Massachusetts records with snowfall in the winter of 2015, right? Still, scientists predict that snowfall averages will continue to decrease gradually throughout the rest of the 21st century, with the average estimate for the winter of 2050 being 35 inches of snow, compared to the average of around 50 inches today—and that’s assuming humanity takes important steps to address climate change. (see graph below). We will certainly still get big storms; in fact, most predictions say that storms themselves will continue to grow larger and more unpredictable, but as temperatures rise, more of this precipitation will begin to fall as rain, rather than snow.
Graph explaination:
The graphs show predicted trends in annual snow water equivalent by season through the year 2100. This means they are predicting the number of inches of snow in terms of the number of inches of rain it would be. Snow volume is estimated to be around 10 times that of rain, so 2 inches of rain would be 20 inches of snow, 3 inches of rain would be 30 inches of snow, etc. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) factors into the estimate of how humans will respond to climate change. High RCP numbers (8.5 - the line in red) represent a low effort from humanity to stop carbon emissions and reduce the effects of climate change. This can be understood as a worst-case scenario. Lower RCP numbers (like 4.5—the line in blue) represent a higher effort to reduce the effects of climate change through new policies, low emissions, and renewable energy. Note that estimates are by season, so the total snowfall average would be the combination of all four seasons’ averages.
Perhaps as we begin to lose snowfall each year, we will start to see more snow days due to smaller storms, rather than the big nor’easters we’re used to. After all, we’ve had plenty of snow days before on days that we probably could have gotten to school just fine. Plus, even on days when storms are more mild, dangerous conditions can prevent students and teachers from getting to school. More winter precipitation falling as rain might result in more slippery, icy roads in the mornings. The possibility of student absences, even for mild storms, might just cause schools to close. A 2014 Harvard study found that, because of these absences, keeping schools open during storms is actually more detrimental to student learning than closing them. When schools close due to snow days, all of the missed learning time is regained by the end of the year. When students miss school, however, they must catch up independently on lessons that they missed while they were out.
Another reason we might start to see snow days for more mild storms is simply because communities want them. Enthusiasm for snow days among parents and students has, for many school administrators across the country, influenced the decision whether or not to cancel or not cancel school during a storm. Bondy Shay Gibson, superintendent of the Jefferson County school district in West Virginia, told The Atlantic, “We have huge expectations of kids these days, and every once in a while, you’ve just got to put grace before grades and let them enjoy being a kid, because it goes by pretty fast.”
Even if we do start seeing more snow days for less snow, though, simply canceling in-person school no longer means a complete break from learning. At this point, the world is well-versed in remote learning technologies, and could run classes over zoom in the case of dangerous conditions or mild storms. In 2021, Littleton had 2 days of remote learning due to storms, and only one true snow day. Even before COVID-19, Littleton had strategies for remote learning with Blizzard Bags in 2018. For parents, remote learning days can be a difficult task, as many struggle with child care and assisting their children with learning from home on days when they are already busy with their own jobs.
At this point, we can really only speculate about the future of the snow day. Only time will tell if the experiences we’re so used to will be passed onto future generations of students in Littleton. Still, I think I speak for all students in saying I hope traditional snow days have a long, long, life. Every child deserves to experience the magic that is a 6:00 AM phone call and a perfect day in the snow.
Sources
“Changes in winter.” Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool, 2017, https://climateactiontool.org/content/changes-winter. Accessed 28 January 2023.
Cray, Kate. “Snow Days May Never Be the Same.” 8 March 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2021/03/snow-days-are-endangered-remote-learning/618216/. Accessed 28 January 2023.
Gavel, Doug. “The effect of snow days on student performance.” 21 January 2014, https://www.hks.harvard.edu/research-insights/policy-topics/education-training-and-labor/effect-snow-days-student-performance. Accessed 28 January 2023.
“Infographic: What are the RCPs?” CoastAdapt AU, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility and the Department of Environment and Energy, https://coastadapt.com.au/sites/default/files/infographics/15-117-NCCARFINFOGRAPHICS-01-UPLOADED-WEB%2827Feb%29.pdf. Accessed 28 January 2023.